Trump’s peace deal could end the war in Gaza or Netanyahu’s career

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A 20-point peace plan proposed by President Donald Trump this week could finally conclude the nearly two-year war in the Gaza Strip and see the return of the 46 hostages still held by Hamas. But it could also mean an end to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s time in the Israeli government’s top job. 

Hamas still needs to agree to the plan that Netanyahu accepted on Monday, which would ultimately end Israel’s military operation, disarm Hamas and pave the way for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip under a Palestinian governing body overseen by an international coalition headed by Trump.

Trump said this could be the Israeli prime minister’s “crowning achievement,” but Netanyahu’s acceptance of the plan could ultimately determine whether his government collapses or finds renewed support. 

TRUMP UNVEILS 20-POINT PLAN TO SECURE PEACE IN GAZA, INCLUDING GRANTING SOME HAMAS MEMBERS ‘AMNESTY’

In June, Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition narrowly survived a push for early elections, which could have led to the dissolution of his government and advanced an election set for October 2026. 

But by July, his government lost the majority in the Israeli parliament after two of its parties withdrew from his coalition and left him in control of just 50 of the 120 seats, which could pose a significant threat should a push for early elections be attempted again.

Netanyahu’s party has continued to grow increasingly fractious, with hard-right members of his party threatening to bring down his government over any concessions made in the war against Hamas.

“They thought they were headed toward ‘total victory’ on the battlefield, a full-blown Israeli military occupation, the displacement of millions of Palestinians to the far reaches of the globe, and eventual Israeli resettlement and annexation of Gaza,” security expert and Randi & Charles Wax senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, John Hannah, told Fox News Digital.

“This new Trump plan runs contrary to all their end-game objectives — even if, at least on paper, it does promise to meet a lot of Israel’s core war aims in terms of returning all the hostages, disarming Hamas and ending its rule, and thoroughly demilitarizing and deradicalizing Gaza,” he added.

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — who resigned in early 2025 over his opposition to the ceasefire and hostage deal that saw the release of 33 hostages before he was reinstated in March — has made clear his desire to see the annexation of Gaza with Israeli settlements moving in, and the complete elimination of Hamas. 

Trump’s proposal, though it does not specifically pave a path for Palestinian statehood, does block Israeli annexation plans and would grant Hamas “amnesty” and a path out of Gaza if they disarm.

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich condemned Trump’s plan as a “resounding diplomatic failure” and said it amounted to “a closing of eyes and turning our backs on all the lessons of October 7th.”

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“In my estimation, it will end in tears,” he said in a post in X. “A tragedy of leadership fleeing from the truth.”

While Netanyahu faces immense pressure within his own party among those who believe he has conceded security demands, he also faces immense opposition among the public. 

His inability to secure a hostage deal and his continued aggressive military operations in Gaza have prompted many Israelis to question whether Netanyahu has prioritized military operations, and perhaps his political ambitions, over the return of the hostages who have been held for 725 days. 

Hannah pointed out that it would have been “disastrous” for Netanyahu not to accept Trump’s plan, given Israel’s growing isolationism on the global stage, but also amid rocky politics at home. 

“It’s absolutely imperative for Israel’s long-term security and, frankly, for Netanyahu’s political future to keep the U.S. and Trump on side,” he said, noting that Trump enjoys more popularity among Israelis than Netanyahu does. 

Approval ratings have repeatedly shown Netanyahu would be unlikely to survive an election were it to happen in the immediate term. 

“If you think predicting American elections is hard, you can’t even imagine predicting Israeli elections given its multi-party parliamentary system,” Richard Goldberg, senior advisor with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Fox News Digital. “In the end, President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu appear more focused on substance than politics, with a deal that would get all the hostages out, force Hamas to surrender and protect Israel’s long-term security.”

It is unclear how public opinion of Netanyahu could be reshaped by his acceptance of Trump’s plan, particularly if Hamas also agrees to it and the hostages could be returned within 72-hours, as is stipulated under the proposal following a joint agreement. 

Netanyahu’s chief opposition and former prime minister, Yair Lapid, said the number one threat facing the success of the plan is a “yes, but” approach.

“What threatens the plan now is not the people who say ‘no,’ like Ben-Gvir or the Iranians, but the people who say ‘yes, but’,” he said on X. “Netanyahu is a seasoned and exhausting expert in ‘yes, but.’ Usually, he says the ‘yes’ in Washington, standing in front of cameras at the White House, feeling like a groundbreaking statesman, and the ‘but’ when he returns home and the ‘base’ reminds him who’s boss.”

Other opposition leaders backed Netanyahu’s agreement to the plan, including leader of the Blue and White Party, Benny Gantz, who said his party “would not allow petty politics to sabotage the plan.”

While it is unclear how Israel will respond to Netanyahu should a deal be reached, Goldberg argued that ultimately the deal is a win for Israel.

“The devil is always in the details, and we are short on details, but from a principles perspective, this would be a clear Israeli victory,” Goldberg said. “When you add on the requirements for demilitarization and deradicalization in Gaza and a fundamental overhaul of the Palestinian Authority, alongside a path to Saudi-Israel normalization, all the topline principles and goals align with Israel’s security interests and war objectives.”

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